Report

Introduction

Between January and December 2021, the U.S. DOJ’s Office of Justice Programs, Bureau of Justice Assistance (BJA) provided funding for The Council of State Governments (CSG) Justice Center to conduct an analysis of racial equity in Vermont’s criminal justice system to support the ongoing efforts of the state’s Justice Reinvestment (JR) II Working Group.

Earlier data analyses by CSG Justice Center staff, completed in 2019 during the first phase of Vermont’s Justice Reinvestment II Initiative, found preliminary evidence of Black-White racial disparities in the court and Department of Corrections (DOC) systems; however, an in-depth analysis was not possible at that stage due to time constraints and data availability. In light of these initial findings, the JR II Working Group requested further study of racial disparity across the state’s criminal justice system.

The purpose of this new analysis was to investigate patterns of racial disparity over time and provide insight into the drivers behind them, with the goal of providing the JR II Working Group with actionable recommendations to address racial disparities moving forward. Consequently, this effort focused strategically on disparities in sentencing, which can be addressed by policy and practice changes within the criminal justice system. 

The CSG Justice Center’s racial equity analysis included the following key components: (a) high-level analysis of sentencing and corrections patterns across racial groups; (b) in-depth analysis of sentencing patterns across racial groups and of factors that contribute to any observed disparities, and (c) an assessment of existing data to identify ways to improve future analysis and monitoring of racial disparity. This project was designed to complement and build upon Vermont’s ongoing work to address racial disparities in the state, particularly those of the Racial Disparities in the Criminal and Juvenile Justice Advisory Panel (RDAP) and efforts to institute a new Office of Racial Justice Statistics.¹² 

This report describes results from analysis of criminal justice system data for the six-year period between January 2014 and December 2019 and is organized into the following sections: 

• A background section that reviews findings from the CSG Justice Center’s 2019 analysis of racial disparity in Vermont’s courts and corrections systems and provides context from the broader research literature on racial disparity in the criminal justice system in the U.S.
• An analytic approach section, which provides an overview of the data sources and quantitative methods used in this analysis
• A summary of results addressing the extent to which Black-White racial disparities exist in criminal case volume, case processing, and sentencing decisions
• Data-driven policy recommendations that outline a path forward to advance racial equity in the state 

Background

Throughout the United States, Black people face incarceration at rates that are grossly disproportionate to their representation in the general population despite progress reducing such racial disparities during the last two decades.¹³ A large body of research documents the role of historical and ongoing forms of systemic racism in creating and perpetuating these racial disparities.¹⁴

Importantly, national research also shows that Black-White criminal justice system disparities are especially pronounced for drug offenses: Black people are three to four times more likely to be arrested and nine times more likely to face state prison incarceration for drug offenses relative to White people, yet these differences are not explained by differences in drug use or sales.¹⁵

Vermont has low average crime and incarceration rates compared to other states;¹⁶ however, despite those achievements, the state’s criminal justice system is rife with the same types of racial disparities that are shown in national research.¹⁷ In fact, for Black-White incarceration disparities, Vermont fares worse than the national average.¹⁸

The CSG Justice Center’s FY2019 analysis of Vermont’s corrections population included the following key findings:¹⁹

• Black Vermonters were overrepresented in all corrections populations relative to their representation in the Vermont general population; these disparities were most pronounced among sentenced and detained incarcerated populations (see Figure 1).
• Relative to the White incarcerated population, a greater share of Black incarcerated people were convicted of drug offenses; at the same time, a lesser share of the Black incarcerated population was convicted of property offenses.

Additionally, CSG Justice Center staff’s previous analysis of racial disparities in the FY2019 (July 2018–June 2019) corrections population included the following key findings:

• Without controls for crime type or criminal history, Black people appeared to be incarcerated for misdemeanors and felonies more often than White people. 
• Among those incarcerated for felony offenses, average sentence lengths did not vary between Black and White people. 

Figure 1. Relative Rate Indices: Vermont DOC Snapshot Population, by Type and Race (FY2019)²¹

In FY2019, Black people were six times more likely to be part of the sentenced incarcerated population relative to White people. Black people were disproportionately represented in all other corrections populations as well. 

As part of the CSG Justice Center’s qualitative engagement work during Justice Reinvestment II, Vermont stakeholders reported perceptions that racial disparities in Vermont’s criminal justice system—particularly for drug offenses—were due to crimes committed by people from out of state, specifically individuals who traveled to or through Vermont for the express purpose of trafficking drugs and who often had longer criminal histories that became factors in sentencing decisions.²² The implication or direct reasoning of this thinking was that nothing inherent to Vermont’s actors or systems was responsible for disparate treatment of Black people. As a result, CSG Justice Center staff designed the current study to account for defendants’ state of residence. Importantly, this perception by some stakeholders was not supported by empirical results of this analysis.

Analytic Approach

It is important to note that racial disparity in incarceration populations and rates can be caused by a multitude of factors that originate both within and outside of the criminal justice system²³ (as depicted in Figure 2 below), and research shows that disparities in sentencing are one important contributing factor.²⁴

Figure 2. Sources of Racial Disparity in the Criminal Justice System

This analysis focuses strategically on disparities in court case processing and sentencing, which can be addressed by policy and practice changes within the criminal justice system and are within the scope of the JRI activities. Specifically, this project investigates racial disparities at three key points within the court system: the inflow of criminal cases, the likelihood of conviction in a case, and sentencing decisions related to incarceration. 

CSG Justice Center staff used quantitative research methods to conduct an analysis of racial equity and develop data-driven policy recommendations to address observed racial disparities in Vermont.²⁵ Data for this project were obtained from the Vermont Judiciary, the Vermont Crime Information Center (housed in the Department of Public Safety), and the U.S. Census, and datasets were cleaned and analyzed using standard statistical methods, including relative rate index calculations and regression analysis^.26 Additionally, CSG Justice Center staff engaged with JR II Working Group and community members to refine and finalize policy recommendations. Through these activities, CSG Justice Center staff aimed to answer the following key analysis questions (see Figure 3): 

(1) Are there racial disproportionalities in the volume of felony and misdemeanor cases filed?

(2) Are there racial disparities in conviction across offense types after accounting for key case and defendant characteristics, including Vermont residency and criminal history? 

(3) Are there racial disparities in incarceration sentences across offense types after accounting for key case and defendant characteristics, including Vermont residency and criminal history?

Figure 3. Analysis Questions

Quantitative Data Sources and Measures 

Vermont Judiciary: The main dataset analyzed for this project was obtained via a data use agreement between the CSG Justice Center and the Vermont Judiciary. Court staff shared data on all criminal felony and misdemeanor court cases disposed between January 1, 2014, and December 31, 2019.²⁷ After excluding cases that were out of the scope of study (e.g., fish and game violations, cases transferred to juvenile court, or cases missing key information), the primary analysis sample included a total of 79,570 cases. A secondary set of analyses were also conducted, using a subset of the main analysis restricted only to people who were Vermont in-state residents at the time a case was filed. This secondary analysis sample consisted of 68,471 cases in total. Findings from the primary analysis are presented in the Results section of this report; however, conclusions are based on results from both the primary and secondary analyses. Details on the development of the analytic sample and secondary analysis results are available in the Technical Appendix. 

Vermont Department of Public Safety Crime Information Center: In addition to court data, CSG Justice Center staff obtained in-state criminal history information via a data use agreement with the Vermont Department of Public Safety Crime Information Center (VCIC). VCIC maintains a statewide repository of criminal history data, including information from law enforcement agencies and the court system. 

Court cases: CSG Justice Center staff analyzed information at the case level. To identify unique criminal cases, charges that were filed on the same day with the same case number listed were grouped into a single case. Cases were classified by offense level (misdemeanor or felony) as well as offense category. Cases that included at least one felony charge were categorized as a felony case, and cases with exclusively misdemeanor charges were classified as a misdemeanor case. Additionally, each case was classified according to the most severe charge filed in a case (e.g., drug offense, property offense) using a severity index from Vermont’s Crime Research Group, Inc. (CRG). CRG is a nonprofit agency that contracts with the Vermont Department of Public Safety to carry out state Statistical Analysis Center activities,²⁸ such as criminal justice analysis to support policy development.

Key measures and quantitative methods: To understand whether there are racial disproportionalities in cases coming into the court system (Analysis Question 1), relative rate indices were calculated.²⁹ Additionally, regression analysis was employed to examine three main case processing and sentencing outcomes, including the following: whether a defendant was convicted of any charges in a case (Analysis Question 2); among cases with a conviction, whether the sentence included incarceration in state prison, and among cases with an incarceration sentence, the length of incarceration time imposed (Analysis Question 3). Notably, in Vermont, incarceration sentences are served at correctional facilities run by the DOC.³⁰ 

CSG Justice Center staff collected and coded two types of additional information to isolate potential sources of disparities: case characteristics and defendant characteristics. Case characteristics³¹ included the offense level and category, the total number of charges filed in a case, the year in which the case was disposed, and the county in which the case was processed. Defendant characteristics included race (Black or White), gender, age at the time of case filing, and Vermont or out-of-state residency at the time of case filing. The primary analysis (described above) accounted for each of the case and defendant characteristics just described; the secondary analysis, which was restricted only to defendants who were Vermont residents, additionally accounted for in-state criminal history. Average characteristics of defendants in the primary analysis are summarized in Table 1 below.

Table 1. Characteristics of Defendants in the Primary Analytic Sample³²

As with any analysis project, there were some factors that could not be accounted for due to limited data availability. For example, the judiciary’s administrative system does not currently track details about decisions made by the prosecuting attorneys or whether the case included a victim’s statement; therefore, such details were not available for this analysis. 

Table 2 below summarizes key details of the analytic approach, including information on research questions, outcomes examined, case counts, data sources, and analysis conducted.

Table 2. Summary of Analytic Approach and Results